The only way that the DA can build a foothold outside of the Western Cape is through mergers and coalitions with other opposition parties; such is the hurdle of perception they need to overcome. The next milestone is the 2011 local elections, where the DA will hope to carry some other large metropoles.

Immediately after the 2009 elections, as the COPE leadership went through countless leadership squabbles, and were largely in danger of slipping out of the political scene as rapidly as they entered it, the DA was said to be already engaging the party to find common ground.

Today, the results of those discussions seem to closer to fruition. COPE leader Sam Shilowa, battling rumours that the party was to be “swallowed up” by the DA, spoke of “co-operation inside and outside Parliament” but denied mergers at this stage. However, Shilowa’s foot remains firmly jammed in the door; “Mergers are not on the cards at the moment, at least not in the short term, but who knows what tomorrow or the day after may hold?”

COPE has a welcome suitor in the DA, and it would seem to provide both with a more stable platform for national challenges. Only an outright optimist would assert that it’s enough to challenge for national control yet, but with the electoral cracks within the ANC, some prudent coalitions in other provinces, and some incredibly proficient political marketing, the DA’s 2014 plans may not be as far-fetched as they may seem.

Buckley’s brand of conservatism stood for capitalism and individualistic freedom, to the point where he sometimes took some bizarre positions which often flew in the face of the Republican party. (In the late 70′s he called for the abandonment of anti-drugs laws, calling them “capricious and unenforceable” a position very far from that of the GOP.) He stood for a Conservatism that was inherent to a movement, not necessarily a political party, and his support of the strength of action over timidness are hallmarks of the modern GOP’s foreign policy.

However, as the WSJ point out, his tenure as father of the movement, also has distinct lessons for a movement so out of touch with the modern America of Obama, lessons the Conservatives will have to heed as they try to re-imagine themselves to find some greater relevance.

For those, have a read of the piece here.

The DA has promised its TV ad soon, and I’ll put that up as soon as I have it. Let me know your thoughts…

Very similar allegations and legal action was taken in Southern US states during the recent US Presidential elections, where the Democrats accused the Republicans of using identical such methods. In South Africa though, if these were borne out as being legitimate allegations, this would reflect an ANC increasingly desperate to retain votes in an intensely bitter election campaign.

The ANC however, has much experience in dealing politically with the DA. The more interesting developments to watch will be the ANC campaign strategy against COPE. Up until present, the ANC’s approach has been a mixture of animal metaphors, personal slurs and their denigration as an “angry washed-up elite”. The elevation of COPE presidential candidate, Mvume Dandala, may well give them some more ammunition, given his relative obscurity in South African politics. I would imagine that Dandala will have a tough time fighting his corner in the coming two months.

The problem though, is that they’ve let the dog out, and now have the problem of reigning it back in. Malema’s bravado yesterday in “claiming” credit for Mbeki’s ousting, and basically stating that the ANCYL sets the party agenda, presents a huge issue for the ANC.

At a time when the party needs to build to perceived strength of leadership, most especially around Motlanthe and Zuma, every public word Malema utters detracts from this aim. The more Malema shouts, the weaker the ANC leadership looks.

Perhaps, and more simply put, it does reflect the lack of strength in leadership and the power vacuum that exists within the upper ranks of the ANC at present. Zuma wants a more statesman role (vis-a-vis Mandela) as opposed to a strong leadership role, but unfortunately that’s not what this country demands right now. As long as this weak leadership exists within the fractured upper echelons of the party, Malema’s voice will remain the loudest. And that is a very dangerous perception for an ANC trying to build both its inner confidence and its trust with the electorate.

On its precedent
Many people have been telling me that this is unprecedented and is unconstitutional, which I think is the easiest one to clear up. Recall of a president by a ruling party is not at all unprecedented. Think Margaret Thatcher, think Tony Blair, think what Gordon Brown is currently facing. The British system, from which we draw a lot of our electoral system, has plenty of examples. This is neither unprecedented or unconstitutional in its process.

On Zuma
Zuma’s role in this process has been both triumphant and weak at the same time. As Steven Friedman, my go to political analyst said on E-TV this weekend, one of the most dangerous things to come out of this process is the fact that Julius Malema looks (if in perception only) to be calling the shots. His loud-mouthed calls for the NEC to recall Mbeki before they had even met were widely reported, and after Mbeki’s recall, there was a deafening silence from other leaders on the NEC, all we heard was Malema’s glee. The ANC needs to get its leadership messaging house in order. Malema’s cannot be the perceived voice of the organisation.

I will go further to say that Zuma’s silence during this process as president of the ANC has been one of his greatest failures in the past few years. Regardless of his perceived involvement or not, he is the top man in the ANC party, and he should have been a much, much stronger voice. Calls for unity should be coming from him, not the secretary-general, and it only adds to the view that the ANC at present is suffering from an abject lack of strong leadership.

Regardless, Zuma looks free to now take his place as president-elect and will undoubtedly be the next president of South Africa (acting president aside).

On the NPA
Personally, I feel that this whole process was a mess of the NPA’s (and Mbeki’s) own making. As Judge Nicholson noted, if the NPA had charged Zuma with Shaik as they should have done five years ago, this would be a open and shut affair. The NPA’s willingness to be used as a political weapon finds its consequence in the actions of the last four days.

Will the NPA recharge Zuma? With a caretaker head and all the political momentum against them, I think it’s very unlikely. One can argue about the fundamentals of Zuma’s guilt ’till the cows come home, but there is an element of realpolitik here. The NPA unfortunately cannot be willingly manipulated politically and then turn around and use a separation of powers argument. This matter is now probably best left closed. We need to move on.

On Mbeki’s legacy
The sad element about these developments, is that they will forever overshadow Mbeki’s two year term. Much of the good, and there is a lot of good, will be swept under the disgrace of being the first democratically elected president to resign his post before his term’s closure. Mbeki’s economic successes, his strong foreign leadership, his visions of African Renaissance, will be completely forgotten. I don’t think history will judge Mbeki kindly, especially if there are further airings of the Arms Deal, as his successes have been less public and less pronounced than his failures. AIDS, the Arms Deal, the NPA-Zuma mess and Zimbabwe (current “deal” regardless) are big ticket items in the collective public consciousness, and will be his legacy.

On whether Mbeki will form an opposition party
In my view, this simply won’t happen. As great as it would be for securing democratic principles in South Africa, Mbeki has given his life to the ANC, and would never turn his back on it, regardless of his recall.

On Motlanthe
With Kgalema Motlanthe to be named as acting president until the elections in April, South Africa in my view have the best man for the job. I hold a lot of respect for Motlanthe, and if I had my way, he’d keep the job after April. The decision to select Motlanthe over Mbete undoubtedly finds its antecedents in the need to keep the current cabinet in place to maintain political stability and an effective running government. Mbete’s escalation may have meant the resignation of many in Mbeki’s cabinet, leading to a collapse of government. One can patently see how dangerous this would be…

The recent reports of Mbeki’s alleged misdemeanours in the Sunday Times, along with the elevated rhetoric from those in the Zuma camp over the last week, have surprised and rightly concerned many. Rumours of Mbeki’s involvement in the arms deal have been whispered and deliberated in the corridors of ANC power for some time now, but the timing of the “leak” of this report is in no way coincidental, and forms part of a wider campaign to force the country to accept the final option open to guarantee Zuma’s freedom.

Read it here.

Nicholson seems a well-respected pick for this critical trial. He is an experienced former human rights lawyer, founder of the Legal Resources Centre in Durban:

“He ran it as its director for the better part of the 1980s and then, after suffering ill health, took up a lecturing post at the University of KwaZulu-Natal.

He also played a role in the establishment of the centre’s constitutional litigation unit before being appointed to the KwaZulu-Natal bench in 1995.

Nicholson has also written several books, including one focusing on the apartheid assassinations of the Cradock Four and another on the life of the Indian golfer Papwa Sewgolum, who was denied recognition under apartheid.”

Whilst it is an honour for Nicholson to be entrusted with such a tinderbox case in the current South Africa socio-political environment, it must also be incredibly daunting. He will become enemy number one for the pro-Zuma hordes who have really shown their true colours during Zuma’s previous rape and graft court appearances. Nicholson will be well aware of the dangerous path he will be walking over the next 6-18 months, and I for one, wish him well.

Far from sharing the joys of spring with the proletariat, the SACP is ‘selling off’ seats next to key members of the tri-partite alliance. How very capitalist, you say? Indeed.

This is what you’ll get for your capitalist-earned cash at the South African Communist Party gala:

R150 000 will buy you a seat at the main table with Jacob Zuma

R100 000 will buy you a seat next to Finance Minister Trevor Manuel

R70 000 will get you Housing Minister Lindiwe Sisulu, Transport Minister Jeff Radebe, Minerals and Energy Minister Buyelwa Sonjica, Social Development Minister Zola Skweyiya and trade and industry minister Mandisi Mpahlwa

And for a paltry R50 000, the more proletariat of you can have Labour Minister Membathisi Mdladlana; Intelligence Minister Ronnie Kasrils; Safety and Security Minister Charles Nqakula who shares a table with former Zimbabwean cabinet minister and Zanu-PF stalwart Ibbo Mandaza, and Gauteng MECs Ignatius Jacobs and Paul Mashatile.

Any takers?